Contrary to what stats might have suggested, this upcoming match in the San Mames will be anything but a walk in the park. What are the interesting talking points from the game? What can we expect from the game tomorrow? Find out what we think after the jump.

Barcelona’s away game tomorrow might be one of the most interesting fixtures of La Liga this week. This game promises a lot of interesting points to take from an attacking football point of view. With Bilbao unbeaten in six games, the team is slowly getting better and understands what Bielsa wants from them. Llorente’s expression after winning the Basque derby, drenched in sweat but sighing with relief, can be a perfect summation of this.

Argentine Marcelo Bielsa is one of the innovators in this modern football era, as can be seen with his success at Newell’s Old Boys, Velez Sarsfield or the Argentina national team that won the 2004 Olympics. After taking over Bilbao this season, right off the bat he seeks a solution to change the footballing identity of Athletic Bilbao. He wanted Athletic to play more expansive, yet talked about squeezing the play in a condensed 25-meter area. He held only one 11-a-side practice session in the whole season and it was confusing for his players at first. His unique approaches can of course rub off the wrong way to a lot of different people.

After Athletic Bilbao’s worst start with just two points in five games, Bielsa was facing an immense pressure to quickly get the team sorted out and start winning. But, the public also wanted for Bielsa to change the team’s usual run of play of fullbacks to battering ram striker, long ball after long ball. For a team that has been playing that way for one hundred years, change is a bitter pill to swallow, but if the Bilbao side wants to learn and improve, then Bielsa is the right man to do it.

Marcelo Bielsa was one of the people that Guardiola met when he embarked in a kind of footballing pilgrimage to Argentina before he was asked to coach Barcelona in 2008, with the 1978 World Cup winner Cesar Menotti being the other. Pep and Bielsa talked until late in the night and one of the questions that spread out to the public was, “Do you really want that blood?”, referring to the state of the game if Guardiola was to become a football manager. Guardiola said “Yes” as he was always keen to learn, and he’s very egalitarian in this aspect as he learns from anybody, anywhere, never too proud to improve. Pep even adopted Bielsa’s policy to never give an exclusive interview, only press conferences, as Bielsa thinks that everybody from the media deserves the same attention, regardless of if it is a well-known publication or a more humble one.

Now on to tactics: Bilbao used various strategies such as 4-2-1-3, 3-3-1-3 (just like he used with Chile), and a variant of 4-2-3-1. The key pairing for the recent wins are putting back Javi Martinez  into the midfield and letting Amorebieta or Mikel San Jose partner Ekiza in the defense. Iraola is back playing as right wing back, and Oscar De Marcos (forward) is not playing left back anymore to give way to Jon Aurtenetxe or Koikili. Gurpegi has been playing everywhere on the pitch and it is indeed very confusing to predict a formation that Bielsa will be employing on this match.

However, we can pinpoint key threats for this match. Llorente, playing as their target man, will be the most obvious one. But if they intend to attack on this match, which I think will be Bielsa’s choice tomorrow, then expect Ander Herrera, Iker Muniain, and Markel Susaeta to be playing behind Llorente in a 4-2-3-1 system. Behind the three, Iturraspe and Javi Martinez will round up the midfield. On paper, this seems like the best players that Bielsa can use to cause problems against Barcelona.

The defense will consist of Ekiza and Amorebieta (or Mikel will play instead if Amorebieta is not match fit), Iraola at right wing back, with Auertenetxe on the left back. Amorebieta is a very physical defender and he has faced Messi many times before, he could be the nightmare for Barcelona too.

Barcelona, I highly suspect, will be starting with 3-4-3 as an element of surprise against Bielsa and the 4-2-3-1. The two defensive midfielder formation in 4-2-3-1 will prove difficult to pass through with 4-3-3 and there is no point in playing a central pair in Barcelona defense if Bilbao will only use one striker in Llorente. Moreover, 3-4-3 emphasizes more on possession and Llorente, just like Falcao in the Atletico match, cannot be a threat if Bilbao doesn’t have the ball. So, who will be playing for Barcelona in this match?

Starting from the three man defense, it should be versatile enough to be accommodated to a four man defense later on. Therefore, the three man defense could consist of Alves, Pique, and Abidal. In midfield, Busquets should be playing alongside Fabregas. Xavi, who has been rested might or might not play, it’s anyone’s guess really. The other two players in midfield could be either Thiago, Xavi, Keita or Mascherano but I think it will be Thiago and Xavi. The front three will have Messi, Villa, and Iniesta as it is hard to see Cuenca starting this one since he has played in three successive matches already.

Team News

FC Barcelona

Pedro and Afellay are still injured, but Alexis Sanchez can prove to be a potent substitute for Guardiola, as he was in Plzen. Xavi and Iniesta have been rested for two matches, but I suspect they will be back in the starting line-up for this match. Messi has been scoring hat-tricks in succession, putting 202 goals for Barcelona and everyone’s question will be: “Will he continue this hat trick in San Mames?” Messi himself has humbled away from the question saying it’s very hard to do it against Bilbao, but the sky is the limit for the messiah, so make sure you watch this match.

Predicted Starting Eleven: Valdes – Pique – Alves – Abidal – Busquets – Xavi – Fabregas – Thiago – Iniesta – Messi – Villa

Athletic Bilbao

A lot of injuries struck Bilbao including Gurpegui, Inigo Perez, and Igor Martinez in their injury list. Amorebieta has also been in doubt as he’s being left out in the Europa League game against Salzburg as a precaution. Llorente is hitting the net or causing a headache for the opposition in the last three matches in La Liga, so be wary of this battering ram from Bilbao.

Predicted Starting Eleven: Iraizoz – Ekiza – Amorebieta – Iraola – Auertenetxe – Javi Martinez – Iturraspe – Muniain – Herrera – Susaeta – Llorente

Match Prediction

The match will be very intense as both teams will seek possession and the battle of wit continues between the former student and mentor. These two managers are relying on possession as their main method of defense, so both teams will press high on the pitch and try to condense the opponent into a small playing area. Expect changes of tactics and approach many times during the match as it unfolds. Prepare for surprises from both teams and to be entertained.

Athletic Bilbao 1 – 2 FC Barcelona